Pubblicato il 28 Ottobre 2009 da Veronica Baker
Preveggenze di Goldman Sachs
Nessuno naturalmente conosce in anticipo i numeri che usciranno domani sul Pil USA.
Ma Goldman Sachs sin da oggi prevede una revisione al ribasso :
[…]Q3 GDP : Now 2.7% vs 3% Previously
Headline gain is in line with consensus and below our figure, but with a composition less dependent on volatile components than some (including us) had expected. Bookings for capital goods recover almost all of past two months’ setbacks.
Shipments somewhat weaker, especially for nondefense capital goods, but they will eventually follow orders. Based on these data and other recent reports, we now estimate tomorrow’s GDP to be +2.7% at an annual rate, versus +3.0% previously.[…]
[…]The shipments of capital goods and total durable goods inventories are the last major piece of information feeding into tomorrow’s preliminary report on GDP growth.
Based on this information as well as other data released in the past couple of weeks — including complete book value inventory data for August — we now estimate that real GDP rose at a 2.7% annual rate, somewhat less than the 3% annual rate that we had previously thought.
Final sales should actually be a bit firmer — up about 2-1/2% versus a previous estimate of 2% — but the contribution of inventories looks qutie a bit smaller […]
Questo spiegherebbe in effetti molte cose nel comportamento degli ultimi due giorni dei mercati, e sarebbe perfettamente in linea con il tipo di comunicazione mediatica utilizzata negli ultimi tempi.