Non basta un solo bail-out

Pubblicato il 11 Aprile 2010 da Veronica Baker

Non basta un solo bail-out

“In order to set incentives for Greece to return to market financing, Euro area Members States loans will be granted on non-concessional interest rates.

“The pricing formula used by the IMF is an appropriate benchmark for setting Euro area Members States bilateral loan conditions, albeit with some adjustments.

Variable-rate loans will be based on 3-month Euribor.
Fixed-rate loans will be based upon the rates corresponding to Euribor swap rates for the relevant maturities.
A charge of 300 basis points will be applied.

A further 100 basis points are charged for amounts outstanding for more than 3 years.
In conformity with IMF charges, a one-off service fee of maximum 50 basis points will be charged to cover operational costs.

“For instance, as of April 9th, for a three year fixed-rate loan granted to Greece, the rate would be around 5%.

Quindi tutto a posto, e la Grecia sarà salvata ?
Non pare.

Ma dopo solamente due ore dall’accordo dato per certo da tutte le agenzie , la Grecia ha chiesto ulteriori fondi.

A Greek senior official has already come up and said that they were only kidding about needing just €40 or so billion.

It would be logical that the EU/IMF aid for Greece amounts to some 80 billion euros ($107 billion) over the next three years if the mechanism is triggered, a senior finance ministry official said on Sunday.

The senior offical said aid this year would amount to at least 30 billion euros from the euro zone and at least 10 billion from the IMF.“40 billions for 2010 is part of a bigger amount for the three-year period. A logical amount for the three-year period would be double than 40 billion,” the official told reporters.

The official added: “We will monitor the markets in the coming days and, depending on how the spreads move, we will decide whether to request the aid mechanism.”He reiterated that Greece still aimed at being able to raise money from markets.

Mah, mah, ed ancora rimah.

E mentre il downgrade di venerdì di Fitch pare solo tappezzeria :

Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Greece’s Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB+’.

The Outlook is Negative.
The agency has simultaneously affirmed Greece’s Country Ceiling at ‘AAA’ and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘F2’.

The downgrade reflects the intensification of fiscal challenges in response to more adverse prospects for economic growth and increased interest costs.
It also reflects ongoing uncertainties about the government’s financing strategy in the context of increased capital market volatility.

The sharp rise in interest rates faced by the government this year, in combination with a deterioration in the outlook for economic growth, will make it harder for the government to achieve its fiscal targets of reducing the deficit to 8.7% of GDP this year and ensuring that public debt peaks at just over 120% of GDP in 2010 and 2011

Il movimento repentino al rialzo del Gold invece è un qualche cosa di importante, i massimi sono alle porte :

Non basta un solo bail-out
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Così come immediate erano state in chiusura di venerdì le ricoperture sull’€/$ in seguito ai seguenti rumours :

Forget the earlier disclosure about low Greek bailout rates.

According to more recent headlines, the loan will be 6% for three years, 7% if longer.

This means there is no bailout as Greece can not sustain those kinds of rates, and the EU is merely buying itself time to prepare for the imminent unwind of the EMU.

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Nel frattempo, nuovi massimi per tutti gli indici USA, non certo inattesi.

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Ma nonostante gli indici ed i dati macroeconomici evidenzino una ripresa (che ovviamente non c’è , se non solo sulla carta, naturalmente) il Bilderberg (cioè la mafia in doppiopetto blu, principale fruitore della politica dello ZIRP che gli sta facendo fare utili come non mai nella storia) chiede il prolungamento dello stato di recessione globale ancora ALMENO per un anno :

Bilderberg hopes to keep the global recession going for at least a year, according to an international financial consultant who deals personally with many of them.

This is because, among several reasons, Bilderberg still hopes to create a global “treasury department” under the United Nations. Bilderberg first undertook this mission at its meeting last spring in Greece, but the effort was blocked by nationalists in Europe and the United States. “Nationalists” (a dirty word in Bilderberg) objected to surrendering sovereignty to the UN.

Bilderberg = Mafia, ma finchè a tutti va bene così’ e non capiranno il meccanismo che ho descritto giorni fa.

Nel frattempo, il carrytrade è tornato quello del 2007 :

Much more importantly for carry traders, the number of Yen shorts surged, with the net number of speculative JPY shorts hitting a two and a half year high of -42,305.

Yet the deterioration in sentiment was a fraction of last weeks, when net short positions increased by a massive 41k to -31k.

E per la prima volta dopo 70 mesi il deficit cinese va in rosso :

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